House Fundraising Update

As I continue my updates on the House fundraising numbers its sad to say that numbers in some districts doesn’t seem good and with Obama planning( I don’t know if he could carry it out) a 50 state strategy this means that Democrats running in House seats will have an advantage of a staffer or two and in some districts even more.

A lesson from 2006 should be taken that every republican should be ready for a storm and as we saw that some of the seats that were considered more vulnerable still held there seats and the ones that were leaning Republican got caught in the storm and lost.

And as I am going on I would like to pause and ask, in this tough economy, people paying record prices at the pomp, wages are going down, (ask the democrats…) people losing their jobs, where is all the record political money coming from? And it’s coming from people who are supposed to be hurt by the slow economy. Maybe they should stop giving money to Obama and to the other Internet money machines and the economy would do better. Here is a thought; maybe this is why Pelosi is proposing another 50 Billion stimulus so the small donors could have the money to donate…

CA 46 Rohrabacher (R) vs. Cook (D)

This should be more then a long shot and an early warning to the incumbent that he has some work on his hands to do. Rohrabacher is running against Huntington Beach Mayor Debbie Cook.

Rohrabacher raised in the 2Q around 78K and has cash on hand 388K and Cook raised in the 2Q around 93K and has 97K on hand.

CA 50 Bilbray (R) vs. Leibham (D)

Here is another race where the incumbent was out raised by the challenger. He is one of the most outspoken members of congress against illegal immigration having started the anti illegal immigration caucus in the house. Bilbray won his race in a hotly contested special election in 2006 one of the few good spots for the republicans that year but the democrats are targeting this seat again this year.

Bilbray raised in the 2Q 120K and still has the cash on hand lead with 528K. His opponent raised in the 2Q 182K and has only 266K on hand.

PA 10 Carney (D) vs. Hackett (R)

Here is a race that I made the case in the past that republican have to pick up this seat this year. Hackett is a strong candidate a self fonder who is waiting to put in his own money near the finish line but has shown strength in raising money too.

Hackett out raised Carney in the 2Q 367K to Carney’s 356K but Carney still has a significant cash on hand lead (that could be wiped out be Hackett’s stroke of a pen) with Carney having 1 million and 149K on hand to Hackett’s 266K.

NV 3 Porter (R) vs. Titus (D)

Titus is coming from a failed bid for Governor that should at least give her a big advantage on name recognition and fundraising and it shows. She again is one of the many democratic candidates who out raise their republican counterparts.

Titus raised in the 2Q 575K to Porters 418K but Porter still has the lead in cash on hand, having 1 million 277K to Titus having 553K on hand.

NV 2 Heller (R) vs. Derby (D)

Heller raised in the 2Q 228K to Derby raising 293K but Heller maintains the cash on hand lead having 984K on hand to Darby’s 353K.

Remember that the presidential race and money spent by both parties would impact both of those seats in NV and don’t forget the outside groups who will spend heavily on the state.

House Fundraising Update

I am trying to put together good news and bad news on the fundraising front. My opinion is, that a candidate that is not being outspend 3 to1 and has the money to get his message out could still manage to win the election. And I strongly believe that this cycle will turn out in a lot of local races to be a referendum on drilling in the United States and the public is turning on the Democrats. One would hope that the Republicans could develop an effective message to turn the public against the Democrats not like the way it always goes that the Democrats still mange to turn everything against Republicans.

AZ 8 Giffords (D) vs. Bee (R)

Bee raised this Q around 390K well short of the about 465K he raised in the first Q. he still has around 690K on hand and the President in coming in for a fundraiser soon that might add some money to his coffers.

Giffords raised in the 2Q around 562K and has 2.1 Million on hand. (She is going to need every dollar do to the McCain effect the top of the ticket.

CA 4 Brown (D) vs. McClintock (R)

McClintock raised in the 2Q 1.2 Million. But coming off a tough primary he has only left about 117K on hand.

Brown on the other and raised 357K but didn’t have to spend on a primary so he has 670K on hand. I am almost certain that McClintock will have the money to hold this seat in the red.

PA 6 Gerlach (R) vs. Roggio (D)

This race is one the most fortunate races fro the GOP. Gerlach beat barely his Democratic opponents in the last few cycles and the Democrats didn’t succeed to recruit a credible candidate against him this cycle. But he is smart and he is not taking anything likely. The democrats didn’t even put him on their target list this time around.

Gerlach raised 343K in the 2Q and has about 761K on hand

Roggio raised 180K in the 2Q and has about 260K on hand.

PA 11 Kanjorski (D) vs. Barletta (R)

This race is turning out to be one of the most interesting races this far and one of the best pickup opportunities for the Republicans. With an incumbent having more then 2 million on hand, the DCCC, in the first general election ad to run this cycle today went on air against Bartletta tying him (a mayor of a city) to President Bush. Kanjorski is being plugged by scandals give earmarks to family members and he was caught on tape that the Democrats overstated their power to end the war just to win the election in 06.

Barletta raised about 330K and in the cycle overall more then 500K and he has cash on hand around 320K. If you want to be a part of beating the democrats Don Young Support Lou Barletta!

Opportunity - NY 19

One of the big success stories of the last cycles for the Democrats was, the Second tier congressional candidates that actually won or came really close and they put those seats in play for this cycle and as we see that we have a really big playing field. Ram Emanuel was a master in picking second tier candidates and giving them some financial support and combing with the netroots raising money for these candidates some of them were a success story on Election Day.

One of my biggest surprises in 2006 was the defeat of Congresswoman Sue Kelly in NY 19. She was caught in the Mark Folly Scandal being in 2000 when some of Folly’s stuff happened the chairwoman of the page board and some were saying that wasn’t good in constituent service and the district has an orthodox Jewish block vote of around 3000 votes and she angered them off by not giving them the “ALL” the earmarks they wanted and the future speaker promised to “HELP” them more the Congresswoman Kelly did so they endorsed John Hall in the last minute and Hall won by about that much votes.

One of the upsides of second tier candidate is, that they are running really hard, they knock on doors, they attend every local event in the district and they do connect with the voters but they don’t have the money to reach out to enough voters to get to the top.

I wasn’t a big fan of Mike Huckabee in the presidential race but when he announced that he is forming a PAC and his main focus would be second tier candidates like he was in the presidential race (maybe that’s why he endorsed Don Young…) I thought it was a great idea because it would help keep those seats above the radar and as the democrats did in 06 some of them would be won and some of them would stay in the game for a better year for the GOP.

I will try to point out some of the races that are really long shots but I strongly believe that they are shots. One of the races I am following closely is NY 19 where the incumbent John Hall was going to face a strong challenge and most likely be defeated to Andrew Saul a millionaire that was ready to spend 10 million dollars on the race and with the court striking down the millionaires amendment Hall would have been crushed. But do to unknown reasons he dropped pout really early in the race and the GOP has not been able to recruit a well-known formidable candidate but they are stuck with Kieran Lalor, an Iraq war veteran who is the fonder of Iraq war veterans for congress a coalition of around 15 Iraq veterans who are running as Republicans for congress.

One of the issues he is focusing on is Drill here, Drill now and pay less. John Hall is a real lefty environmentalist he was one of the few NY congressman who voted against FISA and so on. So this Lalor started to put up billboards one his office how much the price of a gallon gas was when Hall was elected and promised lower gas prices as every Democrat promised it was around $2.50 or less, and what the price today after the democrats control congress for almost 2 years around $4.25 a gallon regular. The next day after putting up this big billboard on his campaign office he got in one of the big local newspapers a full page coverage that led to the billboard being vandalized and some more coverage in the local media.

Today he announced that he raised this quarter $140,000 he filed petitions with 6,200 signatures, a 1,000 more then the incumbent turned in. I do believe that there is an opportunity here and I would strongly urge you all out there looking to make a difference that this is a race worth investing if not for this cycle then for the 2010 cycle.

Today’s Court Ruling

The Other Big One!

Another important decision that was lost to the excitement of the pro gun community was the court striking down the “millionaire’s amendment”. The immediate affect that this will have on this election cycle is not to put aside. Remember the last year how the media was busy that the Republicans are recruiting self fonder who could spend their own money. The democrats were not that afraid because an opponent of a candidate that triggers the prevision (after giving himself 350K) could get unlimited coordinated party spending (the democrats have a huge advantage over republican in the House) and the amount they could raise is 3 times more then otherwise allowed the total they could raise comes to $13,800 from an individual and I don’t know how much from a PAC. Here is the most important part of it of the prevision that is that would hurt the opponent of a self fonder. The campaign finance low gives an amount to overall federal candidates (I think its $42,000) so rich people and special interest are reserving their money for their friends and for their allies on the Hill so when the playing field expands like a year like this to an unusually high number of seats you have to find new donors because of the amount that an individual could donate. But when a candidate triggers the prevision his opponent could go back to lets say a 200 donors that would otherwise donate to his/her campaign but reached their limit and ask not only $4600 but $13,800 and if they get it, it totals to over 2 ½ million dollars that is out of their reach now that the court has said that its unconstitutional. And minutes after the ruling came out I got emails from two candidates that are running against self fonders bragging that they now need money.

If the Republicans pick up NY 20 (Gillibrand vs. Treadwell) you should remember today as a part of the victory!

House Race Updates - NY 26 – NY 13 – NJ 7

NY 26 – The Rotenberg Political Report was reporting last week that the field for the republican nomination cleared and there would be no primary and Chris Lee would be the nominee. This comes a day after a 4th democrat announced that she would be running setting up a potentially nasty primary on the democratic field. And don’t forget that the primary in NY for congressional seats are in September that does not leave enough time for the democrat to reunite the party. And here comes in the presidential race too, with Obama on the top of the ticket the democrat loses one or two points that might be crucial for the democrats to take this long held republican seat.

NY 13 – The republicans and democrats have both settled on their favored candidates with the democrats picking NYC Councilor Michael McMahon and the republicans picking Frank Powers who has never run for public office but is well known in the fundraising community for raising money for GOP candidates and is on the MTA board in NY. He has also pledged to spend at least a ½ million dollars on this race. (You might remember when the NRCC landed another top recruit in NY 19 currently held by Democrat John Hall who defeated in 2006 republican Sue Kelly who has pledged to spend whatever it takes to win and was also a board member of the MTA only to lose him a few short months after that.

NJ 7 – This race is one of my favorite races and I am working on a longer post but do the primary there this Tuesday I have to touch on it a little. The two main candidates are State Senator Leonard Lance who was the leader of the republicans in the NJ state senate until they ousted him and Kate Whitman the daughter of the former NJ governor and EPA administrator.

Whitman is labeling herself as a businesswoman and is running against the establishment. She raised more money then Lance who had to make a big personal contribution to himself and is constantly called the frontrunner having won more county endorsements then Whitman. After following the race for some time my view is that Whitman is the better candidate and my readers in the district should support her. She has run a great campaign by focusing on Lance’s weaknesses and not only going after him on his votes in the NJ State Senate (the NJ state government is one of the most corrupted in the nation) but also going against his follow state senators that cane out to support him by questioning why they thought that he couldn’t be a good leader in the State Senate (by ousting him from his leadership position) why they think he would be a good candidate, she has some clear bold position on taxes and spending, she is taking a bold position against earmarks( that’s not an easy task to take in the corrupted NJ).

The winner of the primary would go up against Linda Stander (who was the 2006 candidate against Mike Ferguson who is retiring) and I thing that it’s always better to have a woman go up against a woman and in 2008 an outsider has a better chance to begin with then a state senator that can be labeled as the old guard.

I will have more on this race if Whitman wins. (The image above is Kate Whitman)

KS 3 - Dennis Moore vs. Nick Jordan

The Kansas Republican Party is probably best know for their infighting like no other state party elsewhere. The social moderates and social conservatives cant take each other and the democrats did a really great job in the past six years exploiting it and winning race after race in the state like never before.

(It always bugged me why the republican have to run conservatives in every district in the nation while democrats find candidates that fit the mold of the district.)

More times then not, the overwhelming Republican legislators find themselves making deals with the "moderate democratic governor" then between moderate republican and conservative republicans. And Kansas's conservatives have grown to seat home rather then to vote for moderate republicans and the moderate republicans have become used to vote for moderate democrats. Moderate republicans instead of running through a competitive primary against conservative republicans are switching parties and running as democrats (congresswoman Nancy Boyda (KS 2nd) in a former republican).

The republicans have recruited this cycle State Senator Nick Jordan to run against Democrat Dennis Moore. His ACU average rating as a legislator is 93% but the greatest concern to democrats (and joy to republican) came from the Kansas City Star saying that Jordan has "shown an ability to appeal to conservative and moderate republican". With potentially avoiding a primary so he doesn't have to alienate either side in a primary. One of the things that hurt the GOP to defeat Moore was the primary every time when they had a good candidate.

President Bush is was in the district yesterday to raise funds for Jordan one would hope that they did some polling before bringing him in. But you cant take it away from the president, that he still raises cash like no one else in the party and if he raises some 300k for Jordan today it might be worth bringing him in (but some might argue that it might not. You decide!) One thing that could avert attention from Bush is the story that appeared in The Hill this week about Moore's Chief of Staff violating house rules by sending a campaign email by house email.

The biggest county in the 3rd district is Johnson County and it's becoming more and more democratic and I don't understand how Phil Kline who lost to Moore in 2000 and became Attorney General in 2002 and then lost to a republican turned democrat and was as controversial as it gets, is now the district attorney for Johnson county.

Jordan could point out as Democrats always do with republicans in their races that they voted with Bush, he could point out that he voted with Pelosi 96.6% and it looks like he will have the money to get his message out.

As far as raising money, it looks like Jordan would close the gap with Moore pretty soon. He has 307,559. Cash on hand to Moore's 889,584.

New York State Senate

With the empire state today in the news that Gov. Paterson is ordering all state agencies to recognize gay married couples from other states, I think it's the proper time to pause for a second and see where NY republicans are hading and why they need your help.

This blog's main focus is on races for the United States House of Representatives and this post has everything to do with house races as the other posts. Why? The magic word is "RIDISTRICTING". NY is poised to lose after the 2008 census two more House seats (they lost 2 seats in 2002 as well). Redistricting is a process between the Governors, State Assembly (House) and the State Senate.

In 2002 when NY State lost two House seats, Do to the republican majority in the State Senate there was an agreement between republican and democrats that each party loses one seat. After losing two special elections this cycle SD 7 in Long Island and SD 48 in upstate NY the republicans now hold a 2-seat majority in the senate (32-30). It's interesting to point out that the only good thing that might come out for republicans from Gov. Spitser's downfall, might be after the 2008 elections if the republicans lose only one seat in the senate it would be 31-3. Before Spitser left Lt. Gov. Paterson would have been the deciding vote and voted with the democrats and given them a 31- 31 majority, now with Joe Bruno as acting Lt. Gov. the republicans would still be in charge in the state senate.

The Republican Party in NY is in shambles and I can't understand why in the world they are bringing in to NYC for their annual fundraising event tonight, Vice President Cheney, Cheney in NY could be for a candidate a political death. The only time I might find myself in agreement with Congressman Wexler (D-FL 19) is that Cheney should be impeached. But I have a different reason, my reason is, so he shouldn't hurt the GOP candidates like some think he did in MS 1 and what he would do in NY. (I would like to point out that the Republican fundraising machine now sends the Vice President mostly to raise funds for state parties so individual candidates aren't associated with him but the state party has the financial advantage to help their local candidates.

The republicans are trying what they could with putting some safe democratic seats into play and trying to win back some lost seats they have actually recruited some great candidates (NY style) but it looks like an uphill battle to hold the State Senate. You all out there take a look at your local State House and State Senate candidate because in the next few years they will decide the future of congress.

On the House races front in NY. The race for NY 26 (Tom Reynolds) is getting ugly on the democratic side, with a 4th democrat announcing a run for the seat and one of them is a self-financer so there would be lot money spent on this race.

Some hope for the GOP is coming from soon to be former Congressman Tom Reynolds. When he announced his retirement it was rumored that he would take over the NY State GOP and recently he met with NYC mayor Michael Bloomberg about helping out the GOP so it shows that he might be looking in to it.